By Ross Blade, CEO Blade Energy Solutions Ltd and Blade Electric Vehicles Pty Ltd 2012
Climate change sceptics may be able to ignore the environmental cost of ‘business as usual’ expressed so eloquently in Al Gore’s “The Inconvenient Truth” but what can not be ignored is the fact that we can no longer extract enough Oil to keep the car industry growing as it has over the past 100 years. With diminishing Oil more people are looking to Coal and Gas to keep the wheels of Western Civilisation turning without counting the real cost. Auto Manufacturers who take this line are putting not just their businesses but the planet as a whole in peril.
Alan Moran, director, deregulation, at the Institute of Public Affairs wrote on 11 January 2012 in the Australian Financial Review an article titled, “Era of cheap energy needn’t be over.” Critiquing Minister Martin Ferguson’s white paper on energy where the Minister asserts that “the era of cheap energy is over”, Alan Moran concludes, “we are not running out of cheap coal or gas”. Alan’s assertion might be correct if one overlooks the staggering ecological cost associated with burning coal and gas (methane) and the economic and social impact on society as oil production plateaus. In just 100 years, mankind has released half the CO2 stored up by nature in the form of oil contributing to a global warming trend. Now that this resource is diminishing, Alan appears to suggest business as usual by burning the equivalent amount in coal – this despite the fact that coal can have as low as half the energy of oil and can release up to twice the CO2. Oil is the most energy rich substance on the planet and it was ours for the cost of drilling, pumping and transporting. Oil is so remarkable that it enabled us to build a civilisation of 7 billion souls in the space of just 100 years. A civilisation that can not survive in its present form without it.
Fossil fuel energy is only cheap because we, as a society, have for the most part chosen to ignore two facts. The first is that burning fossil fuels damages the environment and second that our civilisation is totally dependent on a finite energy source now half depleted. When we can no longer extract enough oil to meet our ever increasing demand the age of cheap energy will end and this will have painful economic consequences if we fail to adapt. It could be argued that the headlong rush to extract Coal Seam Gas marks the tipping point where we can no longer extract enough oil to meet our voracious demand for energy. Renewables are in no position to fill the energy gap and as we turn to coal we must account for the fact that weight for weight it can have half the energy of oil and release up to twice the CO2 along with sulphur and and other toxic waists. For its part Coal Seam Gas extraction is fraught with dangers to the water table and farm land. In addition, the gas that escapes during extraction has 20 times the heat trapping ability of CO2. In short, as we turn to so called cheap coal and gas we risk rapidly increasing the pace of global warming to levels best described as a global ‘cook out’. Fossil fuels like coal and gas have an environmental cost that we choose to ignore at our peril. For now however, they are our only means to fill the energy gap left by Oil.
Which brings me to the issue of switching from petrol to electric cars – in particular BIG powerful electric cars. “At a factory in Port Melbourne, just up the road from General Motors Holden, a group of parts makers led by Better Place and Futuris have built a Holden Commodore EV at their own expense [with $3.5 million from the Tax Payer to cover engineering costs] to prove to GMH and the government that it can be done cost-effectively”. (Alan Kohler, ‘Carr’s chance to rev the EV engine’, 12 Jan 2012 BusinessSpectator). This project brings together major automotive components suppliers Air International, Bosch, Continental and Futuris, electric vehicle infrastructure and services provider Better Place, with the support of Holden and the CSIRO. According to the chairman of EV Engineering Limited and former President and CEO of Mitsubishi Australia, Robert McEniry, large, powerful, zero-emissions vehicles represent an important part of the future of the Australian car manufacturing industry (EV-Engineering Media Release 18-02-2011).
Today, some promoters of electric cars assure consumers that their public recharge networks will only provide green power such as wind, solar and wave energy. However, to suggest a future worldwide or even national fleet of electric cars will run on green power alone is a myth. Of the 80 million barrels of oil consumed world wide per day approximately 56 million barrels per day are used for transportation. Of these 30 million barrels a day are used to move people and there is no way that renewable sources will replace this level of energy demand any time soon – if ever (“Life without Oil” by Steve Hallett, 2011). Should we choose to run big electric cars like a Commodore we’ll need to burn a lot more coal, as the energy gap widens, than would have been needed had the well meaning consortium selected a smaller vehicle. Keep in mind that in key Western export markets the best coal was burned during the Industrial Revolution leaving lesser quality fuel with associated sulphur, heavy metals and other undesirable waists.
Big cars are attractive in terms of their comfort and safety however we also need to consider that an electric Commodore could require in the order of 35kW hours to travel a practical 100km on Australian roads. That’s twice what the smaller Mitsubishi iMiev, Nissan Leaf or Blade Electron require to travel the same distance. According to, “Energy market arrangements for electric and natural gas vehicles – Issues Paper”, published by the AEMC 18 January 2012 the proposed cars could use around 10MWh per annum – ten times more than a small EV. Figuratively speaking, if the world’s roads filled with big powerful electric cars like a Commodore, or heaven forbid a Humvee, we might end up cooking the planet to run them.
The year 2011 was the 11th hottest on record down to 0.5 degrees warmer than the 20th century average due to the cooling effect the recent La Nina – the warmest La Nina year on record. This marks the 35th straight year that global temperatures were warmer than normal with more rapid warming appearing over the next few years (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2011/). Professor Barnett said an increase of more than two degrees would be catastrophic. “A four-degree increase in temperature would result in an extra 3242 years of life lost per year in Brisbane.” (‘Climate warming would cause loss of life.’ SMH, 17 Jan 2012). As we finally s tart to pay for the CO2 we emit coupled with, “families already suffering from raging energy bills” (Helen Pow, “The Dark Ages” Sunday Telegraph Jan 15, 2012) an electric Commodore could quickly go in the same direction, in terms of sales, as its petrol cousin. Add to this the cost to upgrade the grid to cope with the additional demand created by EV’s and in this context GMH and Minister Carr would be wise to avoid the temptation of a big powerful electric car fix for the ailing Commodore. GMH and the planet will do better to stick with its smaller modestly powered Volt.
The era of cheap energy is over and if it is our intention to pass on a better world to our children then it is time, as a society, to cut back our energy consumption and not to increase it. At least until a cheap non-fossil alternative is put in place. This means smaller energy efficient housing, greater use of rail for transporting people and goods, products that are made to last longer (say 25 years) and small zero emission cars that require ‘less to do more’. For the next 50 years at least the only cheap non fossil fuel alternative to oil for our primary electricity, heating and transport needs is nuclear – preferably Thorium which is 1000 time less radioactive than Uranium and its waste decays in 30 years compared to 10,000 years for that of Uranium. However after Fukushima it is far from certain that we’ll choose the nuclear option. If we reject it then the only sustainable choice open to us is to ‘radically’ cut back on our energy consumption and in this context, if personal transport is to survive, it will be in the form of small electric cars.
Blade Electron DG
Article source: http://bev.com.au/2012/01/still-inconvenient-still-the-truth/